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Buy SPY when RSI(14) drops below 30, sell all when RSI crosses above 70

Standard RSI mean-reversion setup on SPY, 3 years of daily data by default. Buys $1,000 chunks whenever RSI(14) closes below 30, exits the full position when RSI crosses back above 70. Since SPY rarely gets deeply oversold, expect this to fire infrequently — most of RSI<30 episodes on a broad index ETF cluster around sharp selloffs (think August 2024, early April 2025 tariff shock). That's actually the interesting part: this strategy is really a bet on "buy the panic, sell the recovery," and its trade count will tell you how rare true panic dips have been over the period versus how much of SPY's return came from just holding through the grind higher.

Watch the win rate against buy-and-hold return in the results — on an index this diversified, a low-frequency dip-buy strategy often underperforms simply holding, because SPY spends most of its time trending up and RSI<30 signals are lagging indicators of a bottom, not leading ones. The alpha/beta stats will show whether the timing added anything over passive exposure.

SPY RSI(14) Mean Reversion — 3 Years
⚠️ WeakAug 7, 2023 — Aug 7, 2026 (day)7 tradesTrailing buy & hold by 46.5%
Total Trades7
Wins7/7 (100.00%)
Avg Return4.93%
Total Return12.67%
Max Drawdown-6.00%
Best Trade8.15%
Worst Trade2.96%
Buy & Hold Return59.17%
Unsold Units0
Total Profit$1,266.56
Peak Profit$1,266.56
Days Since Last Buy131
Days Since Last Sell116
Buys Skipped (out of cash)1

Starting cash$10,000defaultContribution$0defaultFees0%defaultSlippage0%defaultMax position100%default
SPY Price (2023-08-07 – 2026-08-07)
Options
792.03712.32632.61552.90473.19393.48
Start8/188/319/149/2710/1010/2311/311/1611/3012/1312/271/101/242/62/203/43/153/284/114/245/75/206/36/146/287/127/258/78/209/39/169/2710/1010/2311/511/1812/212/1312/271/131/272/72/213/63/194/14/144/285/95/226/56/187/27/167/298/118/229/59/1810/110/1410/2711/711/2012/412/1712/311/141/282/102/243/93/204/24/164/295/125/266/86/227/67/177/30End
Buy/Sell/Count Triggers
46 rows · page 1/5
DateSignalPriceReturn %Hold DaysUnitsTotal P&LPortfolioConditions
2023-08-17BUY$436.29+2 (SPY)$10,000.00RSI(14) below 30
2023-08-18BUY$436.50+2 (SPY)$10,000.42RSI(14) below 30
2023-08-21BUY$439.34+2 (SPY)$10,011.78RSI(14) below 30
2023-09-14SELL$450.362.97%28-6 (SPY)$77.90$10,077.90RSI(14) crosses above 70
2023-09-20BUY$438.64+2 (SPY)$10,077.90RSI(14) below 30
2023-09-21BUY$431.39+2 (SPY)$10,063.40RSI(14) below 30
2023-09-22BUY$430.42+2 (SPY)$10,059.52RSI(14) below 30
2023-09-25BUY$432.23+2 (SPY)$10,070.38RSI(14) below 30
2023-09-26BUY$425.88+2 (SPY)$10,019.58RSI(14) below 30
2023-09-27BUY$426.05+2 (SPY)$10,021.28RSI(14) below 30

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