SOXL Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion — 105.7% Return
Anonymous · August 21, 2026
Standard mean-reversion setup on Bollinger Bands (20-period, 2 std dev — defaults since you didn't specify). Buy $1,000 of SOXL whenever price closes at or below the lower band, sell the entire position whenever it closes at or above the upper band. Since no timeframe was given, I'm running the last 3 years to today, starting with $10,000 cash.
Worth knowing going in: SOXL is a 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF — it's got brutal volatility and decay characteristics, so Bollinger squeezes tend to be wide and violent. A "touch the lower band" mean-reversion strategy on a 3x fund can catch you in a sustained downtrend where price keeps riding the lower band down for weeks (the band moves with it), producing entries that don't mean-revert quickly. Watch the win rate against max drawdown and the number of trades — if trades are sparse, this band pair is too wide for SOXL's actual volatility; if drawdown is severe relative to buy-and-hold, the strategy is catching falling knives rather than dips.
| Date ▲ | Signal | Price | Return % | Hold Days | Units | Total P&L | Portfolio | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-20 | BUY | $18.48 | — | — | +54 (SOXL) | — | $10,000.00 | close at or below lower BB(20,2) |
| 2023-09-21 | BUY | $17.42 | — | — | +57 (SOXL) | — | $9,942.76 | close at or below lower BB(20,2) |
| 2023-10-20 | BUY | $16.64 | — | — | +60 (SOXL) | — | $9,856.18 | close at or below lower BB(20,2) |
| 2023-10-25 | BUY | $14.97 | — | — | +66 (SOXL) | — | $9,570.61 | close at or below lower BB(20,2) |
| 2023-10-26 | BUY | $14.73 | — | — | +67 (SOXL) | — | $9,513.73 | close at or below lower BB(20,2) |
| 2023-11-14 | SELL | $22.14 | 35.58% | 55 | -304 (SOXL) | $1,766.37 | $11,766.37 | close at or above upper BB(20,2) |
| 2024-04-15 | BUY | $39.78 | — | — | +25 (SOXL) | — | $11,766.37 | close at or below lower BB(20,2) |
| 2024-04-17 | BUY | $37.06 | — | — | +26 (SOXL) | — | $11,698.37 | close at or below lower BB(20,2) |
| 2024-04-18 | BUY | $34.91 | — | — | +28 (SOXL) | — | $11,588.72 | close at or below lower BB(20,2) |
| 2024-04-19 | BUY | $30.79 | — | — | +32 (SOXL) | — | $11,263.24 | close at or below lower BB(20,2) |
| Period | Trades | Avg Return | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11 | 1 | 35.58% | 35.58% |
| 2023-12 | 0 | 0.00% | 35.58% |
| 2024-01 | 0 | 0.00% | 35.58% |
| 2024-02 | 0 | 0.00% | 35.58% |
| 2024-03 | 0 | 0.00% | 35.58% |
